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Heart Disease Prediction
Heart Disease Prediction : Researchers have created a straightforward blood test that forecasts a woman’s risk of developing cardiovascular disease over the next 30 years. Funded by the NIH the study discovered that analyzing two specific types of fats in the blood can effectively determine
long-term heart disease risk in women.
This breakthrough could significantly enhance early risk assessment and preventive care providing valuable insights for better managing cardiovascular health over an extended period.
On Saturday scientists announced the development of a straightforward blood test capable of predicting a woman’s risk of cardiovascular disease over a 30-year period.
This breakthrough research supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), reveals that assessing two specific types of fat in the bloodstream along with C-reactive protein (CRP)—a marker of inflammation can accurately forecast long-term cardiovascular disease risk in women.
Paul M. Ridker, director of the Center for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston emphasized the significance of this advancement “We can’t treat what we don’t measure.
We hope these findings bring us closer to identifying even earlier methods for detecting and preventing heart disease. This new test offers promising potential for improving early risk assessment and preventive strategies ultimately contributing to better long-term cardiovascular health management.
The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, involved analyzing blood samples and medical data from 27,939 U.S. healthcare providers who took part in the Women’s Health Study.
The participants, who began the study between 1992 and 1995 at an average age of 55, were tracked for 30 years. Throughout this period, 3,662 women experienced significant cardiovascular events including heart attacks, strokes, surgeries to restore circulation or deaths related to cardiovascular issues.
The researchers evaluated how high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and lipoprotein(a)—a lipid component partly derived from LDL—individually and collectively predicted these cardiovascular events.
When all three markers were assessed together women with the highest levels had more than 1.5 times the risk of stroke and over three times the risk of coronary heart disease compared to those with the lowest levels.
This comprehensive analysis highlights the significant impact of these biomarkers on predicting long-term cardiovascular risks and underscores their potential for enhancing early detection and prevention strategies.
Although this study focused solely on women researchers anticipate similar results in men. Ahmed AK Hasan program director at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), noted, “In recent years we’ve gained a better understanding of how increased inflammation interacts with lipids to amplify cardiovascular disease risks.
This insight helps explain why lower levels are often more beneficial. To reduce heart disease risk the researchers recommend maintaining regular physical activity adopting a heart-healthy diet managing stress, avoiding tobacco, and quitting smoking. These lifestyle changes are crucial for minimizing cardiovascular risk and promoting overall heart health.
Blood test can predict women's risk for cardiovascular disease in 30 years
Dr. Paul Ridker, the study’s lead author told UPI via email, “Heart disease continues to be underdiagnosed and undertreated in women. Sadly our current screening guidelines often identify high-risk women too late, long after preventive measures should have been started.
Dr. Paul Ridker, director of the Center for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School in Boston, stated, “Cardiovascular disease is largely preventable but it’s crucial to identify the underlying biological issues for each individual patient we see in the clinic. We need to intervene at a very early stage.
Patients should ask
Dr. Paul Ridker emphasized the need for proactive measures in cardiovascular disease prevention: Doctors don’t treat what they don’t measure so patients may need to request that these three biomarkers be assessed in their 40s rather than waiting until their 70s. Our prevention guidelines should be updated to support universal screening much earlier in life.”
In the study researchers gathered blood samples and medical information from 27,939 U.S. medical providers who participated in the Women’s Health Study. The participants who joined the study between 1992 and 1995 at an average age of 55, were monitored for 30 years. Throughout this period 3,662 women experienced significant cardiovascular events, including heart attacks, strokes, surgeries to restore circulation, or cardiovascular-related deaths.
The researchers analyzed how three specific biomarkers—high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and lipoprotein(a) or Lp(a), a lipid that includes LDL—predicted these cardiovascular events.
They evaluated these markers both individually and in combination. To understand their impact, participants were categorized into five groups based on their levels of these biomarkers from highest to lowest. This detailed assessment helped determine the relationship between these biomarkers and the occurrence of cardiovascular events over the long term.
Women with the highest LDL cholesterol levels had a 36% increased risk of heart disease compared to those with the lowest levels. Those with the highest levels of lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) had a 33% increased risk while individuals with the highest levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) experienced a 70% elevated risk of heart disease.
Far higher risks
When researchers evaluated all three biomarkers together participants with the highest levels had more than a 1.5 times greater risk of stroke and over a three times increased risk of coronary heart disease compared to individuals with the lowest levels
Although the study focused solely on women, researchers expect similar results in men.
Dr. Paul Ridker highlighted the study’s potential, stating, “From a single blood sample we can predict not just the risk of heart attack, stroke, and cardiovascular death over the next five or ten years, but even up to 30 years in advance.
He also noted, “Understanding all three biomarkers significantly enhances our ability to predict risk. Importantly, these biomarkers are actionable, meaning it’s not just about lifestyle changes but also about providing the appropriate medication to the right patient early enough to potentially extend her life.
Researchers explained that immune cells, which help the body repair wounds and fight infections, can also detect excess cholesterol or react to plaque buildup by releasing inflammatory signals. This creates a hyperinflammatory environment that can cause plaque to form, grow, or rupture, potentially leading to cardiovascular events.